Rugby Union 6 NATIONS Week 1 to 5 Predictions
30-Jan-2025 by Kerry O’Sullivan
A close fight this year between Ireland, France, England (and possibly Scotland)
The 6 Nations start in a few days and modelling predicts a a close fight between Ireland, France, England possibly Scotland.
Below is a table of all the predicted games as of 29-Jan-2025. They will be updated weekly.
Be clear, be confident and don’t overthink it. The beauty of your story is that it’s going to continue to evolve and your site can evolve with it. Your goal should be to make it feel right for right now. Later will take care of itself. It always does.
At the present moment Ireland are in the lead to be champions (38%), but in reality it’s too close to call with France (29%) and England (21%) close behind. Even Scotland (14%) with a bit of luck can also hope to be a contender.
The below chart show the predicted final table positions.
A grand slams victory for any of the teams doesn’t seem likely this year, see the below table. As result come in the calculation will be redone and prediction updated.
Individuals Teams Assessments
Ireland
Favourites? This is not the world cup team of 2023, nor the 6 nations winner of last year. After a poor Autumn season of games this team needs to stop the decline that has set in. Thought not at their previous best, Ireland still have the best defence by far of the European teams. The issue is the offence, they can stop the opposition from scoring but to win game they need to be scoring more.
France
Like Ireland not at their 2023 world cup best but their offence is as good as the current southern teams of New Zealand and South Africa. As the autumn internationals showed they can score against teams like New Zealand, but also like the autumn internationals showed teams like New Zealand can rip their defences apart.
England
They have to come out the gates swing as their first 3 games are against Ireland (away), France (home) and Scotland (home). If the England that played New Zealand last November shows up, they could be champions (21%).
Scotland
They have been on an improvement drive for several years and finally are looking like outside contenders. Victories against Ireland AND France AND England seems unlikely (5%). A victory against Ireland OR France OR England is very possible (41%), or a combination of two (24%). Note, to lose to all 3 is still and 1 in 5 chance (22%).
Wales
The opposite of Scotland, their decent of recent years has yet to be halted. Their only saving grace is that Italy of 2025 is not the Italy of 2024 who beat both Wales and Scotland. Italy are predicted to have a 35% chance of beating Wales in week. Note, that Italian 35% is much higher than any predicted chance Wales has of victory against either Ireland (12%), France (15%), England (18%) or Scotland (24%).
Italy
A great year for them in 2024 beating both Wales and Scotland. Italy are unlikely to repeat it this year (5%), but a victory against Wales (35%) in week two is their best bet. Expect a strong Italy to show up in Rome on 8-Feb.
